Rishi Sunak talked yesterday about the Tories facing an existential threat. Here's some maths to demonstrate why he is worried; his own seat is at risk.

First some background. There are 650 seats in the UK parliament. They split down as follows:

• Tories: 357
• Labour: 196
• SNP: 44
• Lib Dems: 14
• Others: 38
• Vacant: 1

(Source: parliament website).. The Parliament website states the Tories have 71 majority.

The latest poll today commissioned by the New Statesman (link) says if a General Election was tomorrow the scores would be Labour 54%, Tories 21%, Lib Dems 11%, Green 4%, Reform 4%.

If you plug that into a calculator (I used electoralcalculus.co.uk) you get the seat allocation as below:

• Labour: 546
• SNP: 52
• Lib Dem: 20
• Tories: 8
• Others: 34.

Assuming they all stand for the next GE, the Tories who would survive this theoretical night of 349 cuts would be:-

• Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
• Mark Francois (Rayleigh and Wickford)
• Alex Burghart (Brentwood and Ongar)
• Victoria Atkins (Lough and Horncastle)
• John Whittingdale (Maldon)
• Rebecca Harris (Castle Point)
• Matt Warman (Boston and Skegness)
• John Hayes (South Holland and the Deepings)

Rishi Sunak himself would lose his seat (Richmond); only once before has a UK prime minister lost his seat (Arthur Balfour for the Tories in 1906).

submitted by /u/Fwoggie2
[link] [comments] https://ift.tt/41EtACy

from United Kingdom https://ift.tt/ghBoFzD
via