So the telegraph just leaked that..apparently its not going to be a national lockdown..but Tier 4?
Fourth tier" of coronavirus restrictions is set to be introduced after scientists warned Boris Johnson that the virus is spreading faster than even their gloomiest predictions.
The Prime Minister spent Friday in crisis meetings with aides after being told deaths were tracking above the "worst case scenario" that suggested 85,000 in the second wave.
Ministers now believe more than half the UK population will be in Tier 3 restrictions next month, with London, the West Midlands and Teesside joining the areas with the harshest measures.
But Mr Johnson is considering going further by introducing even stricter restrictions, with Government insiders saying everything except the closure of schools "is up for discussion".
The Prime Minister is pinning his hopes on beefed-up regional measures – being referred to in Whitehall as "Tier 4" – to avoid the national lockdown his scientific advisers are now demanding.
Government scientists now believe Tier 3 is not sufficient to control Covid and that even low prevalence areas may need tighter controls to avoid a surge in cases. Sources believe the whole country will soon be in the upper tiers.
Asked whether a new "Tier 4" could be imposed, a senior source said: "The trajectory is clear. This is going in the wrong direction and has been for a while.
"We have consistently said that baseline Tier 3 was not enough to bring the 'R' number below one, and that looks to be the case.
"It will reduce it a bit, but the message is the effect isn't enough. If you want to break transmission, we need to do more things. That may require further restrictions."
Sources suggested pubs and restaurants would face closure if a "fourth tier" is introduced, though non-essential retailers would only be forced to shut in the most extreme circumstances.
Another 24,405 people tested positive for coronavirus on Friday, with 274 deaths. The 'R' rate of infection fell week on week from between 1.2 and 1.4 to between 1.1 and 1.3 – but that still means infections are spreading exponentially, and the Office for National Statistics said cases "continue to rise steeply".
Belgium became the latest European country to announce a second lockdown on Friday, in line with France and Germany, but Mr Johnson is determined to resist national restrictions in England.
One Cabinet minister said: "When you look at what's happening in France, we might have to adapt the tier system and add extra restrictions.
"The Cabinet is pretty united on this – we don't want to see a national lockdown because a 'circuit-breaker' is not the answer, but we realise we might have to get tougher in the areas where the infections are highest."
Mr Johnson believes the public is ready to accept harsher restrictions than those already imposed in areas including Liverpool and Manchester.
Another Cabinet minister said: "The polling shows that the public are already there – they know that this is going to be difficult for a while, and they are supportive of the measures."
Many Tory MPs have urged Mr Johnson to resist calls to go further with restrictions, but Whitehall sources said there was "concern about the data" in Downing Street.
New documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) show that, by October 14, deaths had reached "reasonable worst case scenario levels" and were likely to exceed them by the end of the month.
Modelling leaked to The Spectator earlier this week showed that the Government expects up to 85,000 deaths in the second wave – double the number in the first – but scientists have warned that the death toll may now be higher without widespread restrictions.
Hospitalisations have already breached "reasonable worst case" levels, the papers show, and minutes from Sage warned that the NHS is in danger of being overwhelmed without national interventions.
Discussions are ongoing about whether the tougher restrictions would be referred to as "Tier 4" or "Tier 3 plus".
One senior Government source said: "In Tier 3 everything is up for discussion apart from schools, so 'Tier 4' is an odd concept in that sense."
Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, said the Government was "striving" to avoid blanket restrictions nationwide and insisted targeted measures could slow the growth in cases.
Asked about the potential for introducing a "Tier 4", Mr Raab, a member of the Cabinet's coronavirus subcommittee, said: "We're always ready for further measures that we can take, but I think the most important thing about further measures is that we continue on the track that we're on of targeting the virus."
To date, 10.6 million people in England have been placed into Tier 3, with another 10.6 million in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Scotland living under similar or harsher measures.
The West Midlands and the Tees Valley are expected to be moved to Tier 3 as early as next week, with talks between the Government and local leaders in both areas ongoing.
Officials working for the London Mayor, Sadiq Khan, believe the capital will be placed into Tier 3 in November, though no formal talks with the Government have been held yet.
If London, the West Midlands and the Tees Valley are put into Tier 3, it would mean 35 million people living under the strictest regulations – more than half the UK population of 66.6 million.
Mark Drakeford, the Welsh First Minister, said on Friday that local lockdowns in Wales "didn't work well enough" to curb the spread of Covid and that a national set of rules would be adopted when the country comes out of its "fire break" lockdown on November 9.
He also disclosed that Mr Johnson was working on a "common approach to Christmas" by all four home nations in a bid to save the festive season.
Related Topics UK coronavirus lockdown, Pandemics and epidemics, Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Coronavirus, Health 327 The Telegraph values your comments but kindly requests all posts are on topic, constructive and respectful. Please review our commenting policy.
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