Brexiteers have a higher mortality rate.

It's my cake day. I though I would kick back and enjoy it in true Reddit style, by arguing with some Internet strangers, doing some maths, and upsetting people with facts. That led me to the (perhaps not so) startling conclusion that Brexiteers have a mortality rate 1.667 times higher than Remainers.

TL/DR: The old people really did fuck over the youth vote before promptly (and very conveniently for them) dying.

• The UK has an annual mortality rate of just over 500,000 (529,098 deaths on average per year)
• 1.79% of the 2016 electorate were ineligible to vote in the referendum
• Turnout was 72.2%
• Leave garnered ~52% of the vote, Remain garnered ~48% of the vote
• Between 2016 and 2018 (latest available data), there have been 1,587,295 deaths of people who were aged 18 in 2016

Extrapolating the "eligible voter base" leaves an eligible electorate within the deaths of 1,548,045.

Based on the turnout, 1,117,689 of those would have been likely to vote. Statistically, on those figures you would expect 580,582 "remainers" and 967,504 "leavers" to have died (based on the 48/52 split) - a difference of 386,692 in favour of Remain. However, it gets interesting when you adjust for age.

YouGov estimated that the voting preference of each age group was likely to be:

• 18-24: 71% Remain, 29% Leave
• 25-49: 54% Remain, 46% Leave
• 50-64: 40% Remain, 60% Leave
• 65+: 36% Remain, 64% Leave.

Taking these age factors in to account, It is likely that 419,151 "remain" voters have died, and 698,537 "leave" voters have died. That's a difference of 279,386 in favour of Remain.

Deaths (by age, and likely voting preference, based on turnout and eligibility) from 2016-2018:

• 18-24: 2,307 Remainers, 942 Leavers (1,364 difference; favouring leave)
• 25-49: 24,551 Remainers, 13,089 Leavers (11,461 diffference; favouring leave)
• 49-64: 46,454 Remainers, 69,682 Leavers (23,227 difference; favouring remain)
• 65+: 345,838 Remainers, 614,823 Leavers (268,985 difference; favouring remain)
• Total: 419,151 Remainers; 698,538 Leavers, 279,386 difference; favouring Remain - the opposite of what the "whole populace" result would give.)

You could also surmise from this that voting Leave was more hazardous for your health. Possibly all the stress from shouting about it being a "decisive victory", and that requesting a second / confirmatory referendum was "undemocratic", and that it's "the will of the people".

Looking at just 2016, based on those eligible (deaths-1.79%) and likely to vote (72% of eligible voters):

• 18-29: 910 remainers, 372 leavers
• 25-29: 8,205 remainers, 6,9909 leavers
• 49-64: 15,951 remainers, 23,927 leavers65+: 113,218 remainers, 201,276 leavers
• Total: 138,284 remainers, 232,564 leavers!

Leave voters are 1.667 times more likely to die (on average) than remain voters. That's down slightly from 2016, where they were 1.68 times more likely to die. Their survivability has improved by .01%.

The old people really did fuck over the youth vote before promptly (and very conveniently for them) dying.

Edit: Got a word wrong.

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